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Correlation
of values
+59%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
235
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Real Personal Consumption moves ~18 months before 1Y Treasury Yield
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on 1Y Treasury Yield.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+59%
Based on values
95% CI
+50% → +67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
235 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
235
16,155
Normalized
235
16,155
Prepared
235
777
Aligned
235
235
Invalid removed
R²(i)
35%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
235
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+82%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
1Y Treasury Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with 1Y Treasury Yield 18 months from now?"
217 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
95 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+33%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-11%
108 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
542
A: 0 / B: 542
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 235 raw → 235 prepared
Series B
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,155 raw → 777 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-5.9803
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dgs1_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y