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Correlation
of values
+95%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-14
1,281
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~89% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+95%
Based on values
95% CI
+94% → +95%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,281 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,160
1,876
Normalized
16,160
1,876
Prepared
16,160
1,876
Aligned
1,281
1,281
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
89%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,281
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+95%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,281 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+95%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+95%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-5%
133 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
15,474
A: 14879 / B: 595
Series A
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,160 raw → 16,160 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,876 raw → 1,876 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.1186
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.4905
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dgs1_fred-iorb_daily_5y