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Correlation
of values
-57%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
773
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~33% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Industrial Production moves ~18 months before 1Y Treasury Yield
Watch Industrial Production for an early read on 1Y Treasury Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-57%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
773 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,289
16,111
Normalized
1,289
16,111
Prepared
1,289
775
Aligned
773
773
Invalid removed
33%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
773
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-63%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
1Y Treasury Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Industrial Production today line up with 1Y Treasury Yield 18 months from now?"
755 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-32%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
518
A: 516 / B: 2
Series A
Industrial Production
INDPRO
FRED · 1,289 raw → 1,289 prepared
Series B
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,111 raw → 775 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0748
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.1498
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs1_fred-indpro_monthly_5y