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Correlation
of values
-56%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~31% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-56%
Based on values
95% CI
-85% → -1%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
16,092
13
Normalized
16,092
13
Prepared
774
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
30.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-56%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
761
A: 761 / B: 0
Series A
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,092 raw → 774 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-188113.0033
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4771204.0428
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs1_fred-exhoslusm495s_monthly_5y