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Correlation
of values
+97%
In sync
of periods
85%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
16,111
These move in the same direction about 85% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~94% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
85%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+97%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
16,111 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,111
16,111
Normalized
16,111
16,111
Prepared
16,111
16,111
Aligned
16,111
16,111
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
94%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
16,111
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
16,111 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,111 raw → 16,111 prepared
Series B
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,111 raw → 16,111 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
241
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0409
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.8337
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs1_fred-dgs5_daily_5y