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Dollar General Corp. (DG) vs U-6 Unemployment Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~18 months before DG
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on DG.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-48% → +2%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
387
Normalized
1,254
387
Prepared
60
387
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+30%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Dollar General Corp. (DG) today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 18 months ago?"
33 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-31%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-29%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
331
A: 2 / B: 329
Series A
Dollar General Corp. (DG)
DG
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 387 raw → 387 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0679
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0051
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-u6rate_stock-dg_monthly_5y