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Dollar General Corp. (DG) vs Building Permits
Correlation
of % moves
+21%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~10 months before DG
Watch Building Permits for an early read on DG.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-5% → +44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
799
Normalized
1,254
799
Prepared
61
799
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
+41%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Dollar General Corp. (DG) today line up with Building Permits 10 months ago?"
48 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+54%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
31 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
742
A: 2 / B: 740
Series A
Dollar General Corp. (DG)
DG
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1010
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0014
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-permit_stock-dg_monthly_5y