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Dollar General Corp. (DG) vs Building Permits
Correlation
of % moves
+21%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~10 months before DG
Watch Building Permits for an early read on DG.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-5% → +44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
796
Normalized
1,254
796
Prepared
60
796
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
+40%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Dollar General Corp. (DG) today line up with Building Permits 10 months ago?"
48 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-23%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+53%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
738
A: 1 / B: 737
Series A
Dollar General Corp. (DG)
DG
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1032
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0015
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-permit_stock-dg_monthly_5y