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Dollar General Corp. (DG) vs Industrial Production
Correlation
of % moves
+20%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
DG moves ~5 months before Industrial Production
Watch DG for an early read on Industrial Production.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-6% → +44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,291
Normalized
1,254
1,291
Prepared
61
1,291
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-29%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Industrial Production shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Dollar General Corp. (DG) today line up with Industrial Production 5 months from now?"
53 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-54%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,234
A: 2 / B: 1232
Series A
Dollar General Corp. (DG)
DG
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Industrial Production
INDPRO
FRED · 1,291 raw → 1,291 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0111
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-indpro_stock-dg_monthly_5y