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Correlation
of values
-37%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
1,236
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10Y Real Yield moves ~12 weeks before Fed Balance Sheet
Watch 10Y Real Yield for an early read on Fed Balance Sheet.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on values
95% CI
-42% → -32%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,236 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,238
5,924
Normalized
1,238
5,924
Prepared
1,238
1,236
Aligned
1,236
1,236
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,236
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-43%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
10Y Real Yield shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Fed Balance Sheet today line up with 10Y Real Yield 12 weeks ago?"
1,224 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-85%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2
A: 2 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,238 raw → 1,238 prepared
Series B
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,924 raw → 1,236 prepared
Sign agreement
83.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.5893
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-walcl_weekly_5y