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Correlation
of values
-39%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
1,227
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10Y Real Yield moves ~12 weeks before Fed Balance Sheet
Watch 10Y Real Yield for an early read on Fed Balance Sheet.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,227 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,229
5,880
Normalized
1,229
5,880
Prepared
1,229
1,228
Aligned
1,227
1,227
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
15%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,227
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
10Y Real Yield shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Fed Balance Sheet today line up with 10Y Real Yield 12 weeks ago?"
1,215 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3
A: 2 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,229 raw → 1,229 prepared
Series B
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,880 raw → 1,228 prepared
Sign agreement
83.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.5979
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-walcl_weekly_5y