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Correlation
of values
-51%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
279
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
10Y Real Yield moves ~18 months before Bank Reserves
Watch 10Y Real Yield for an early read on Bank Reserves.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on values
95% CI
-60% → -42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
279 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,841
807
Normalized
5,841
807
Prepared
281
807
Aligned
279
279
Invalid removed
R²(i)
26.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
279
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10Y Real Yield today line up with Bank Reserves 18 months from now?"
261 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
132 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
530
A: 2 / B: 528
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,841 raw → 281 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
83.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-649.4386
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2438.1990
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-totresns_monthly_5y