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Correlation
of values
+63%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
93
These move together
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+63%
Based on values
95% CI
+49% → +74%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
93 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,861
269
Normalized
5,861
269
Prepared
282
269
Aligned
93
93
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
40.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
93
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
93 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
365
A: 189 / B: 176
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,861 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Sign agreement
83.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1621
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4292
Linear regression intercept.
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