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Correlation
of values
-29%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
10Y Real Yield moves ~18 months before M2 Money Supply
Watch 10Y Real Yield for an early read on M2 Money Supply.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on values
95% CI
-39% → -17%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
5,861
Normalized
808
5,861
Prepared
808
282
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-49%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
10Y Real Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does M2 Money Supply today line up with 10Y Real Yield 18 months ago?"
262 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
92 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+43%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
121 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
530
A: 528 / B: 2
Series A
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,861 raw → 282 prepared
Sign agreement
83.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6520
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-m2sl_monthly_5y