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Correlation
of values
-28%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
10Y Real Yield moves ~18 months before Job Openings
Watch 10Y Real Yield for an early read on Job Openings.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -17%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,861
305
Normalized
5,861
305
Prepared
282
305
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-61%
+33% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10Y Real Yield today line up with Job Openings 18 months from now?"
262 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-9%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
111 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
27
A: 2 / B: 25
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,861 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
83.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-645.9608
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6266.9459
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y