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Correlation
of values
+68%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
284
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~47% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+68%
Based on values
95% CI
+62% → +74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
284 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
866
5,924
Normalized
866
5,924
Prepared
866
285
Aligned
284
284
Invalid removed
R²(i)
47%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
284
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+68%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
284 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
137 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
583
A: 582 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 866 raw → 866 prepared
Series B
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,924 raw → 285 prepared
Sign agreement
84.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3638
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.3455
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y