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Correlation
of values
+19%
In sync
of periods
68%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
319
These move in the same direction about 68% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Total Consumer Credit
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on Total Consumer Credit.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
68%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+19%
Based on values
95% CI
+8% → +29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
319 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,003
6,683
Normalized
1,003
6,683
Prepared
1,003
321
Aligned
319
319
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
319
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+28%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Total Consumer Credit today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
301 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
85 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+27%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-5%
91 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
686
A: 684 / B: 2
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,003 raw → 1,003 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,683 raw → 321 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0867
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-187347.6184
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y