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Correlation
of values
+7%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
315
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~11 months before USD/VES Exchange Rate
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on USD/VES Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+7%
Based on values
95% CI
-4% → +18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
315 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
796
6,606
Normalized
796
6,606
Prepared
796
317
Aligned
315
315
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
315
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+11 months
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+58% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 11 months earlier. Reads: "Does Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 11 months from now?"
304 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 months
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-16%
169 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
483
A: 481 / B: 2
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
59.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
26564.2888
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
82158.6278
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y