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Correlation
of values
-5%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
315
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities moves ~17 months before USD/VES Exchange Rate
Watch Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities for an early read on USD/VES Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-5%
Based on values
95% CI
-16% → +6%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
315 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
706
6,606
Normalized
706
6,606
Prepared
706
317
Aligned
315
315
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
315
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
+18%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 17 months from now?"
298 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-5%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
+18%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-3%
163 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
393
A: 391 / B: 2
Series A
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1141.0930
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
102493.7046
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y