Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-29%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
317
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
317 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
6,606
Normalized
533
6,606
Prepared
533
317
Aligned
317
317
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
317
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-29%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
317 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-21%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
166 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
216
A: 216 / B: 0
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
92.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-168692.0441
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
295897.3488
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y