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Correlation
of values
+21%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
105
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~5 months before Median Home Price
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on Median Home Price.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on values
95% CI
+2% → +39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
105 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
253
6,606
Normalized
253
6,606
Prepared
253
317
Aligned
105
105
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
105
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
+36%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Median Home Price today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 5 months ago?"
100 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
+36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+65%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
64 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
360
A: 148 / B: 212
Series A
Median Home Price
MSPUS
FRED · 253 raw → 253 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.1485
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-242476.6704
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-mspus_monthly_5y