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Correlation
of values
-30%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
1,392
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on values
95% CI
-35% → -25%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,392 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,828
6,683
Normalized
1,828
6,683
Prepared
1,828
1,392
Aligned
1,392
1,392
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,392
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-30%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,392 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
436
A: 436 / B: 0
Series A
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,828 raw → 1,828 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,683 raw → 1,392 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-101582.6265
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
562739.0166
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y