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Correlation
of values
-32%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
105
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on values
95% CI
-48% → -13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
105 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
269
6,606
Normalized
269
6,606
Prepared
269
317
Aligned
105
105
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
105
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-32%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
105 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-52%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
69 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
376
A: 164 / B: 212
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-481014.7167
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
872058.5779
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-m2v_monthly_5y