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Correlation
of values
+27%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
315
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on values
95% CI
+17% → +37%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
315 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
6,606
Normalized
807
6,606
Prepared
807
317
Aligned
315
315
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
315
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+27%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
315 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
123 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-19%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
494
A: 492 / B: 2
Series A
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
24.0579
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-191144.8588
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-m2sl_monthly_5y