Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+33%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
319
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on values
95% CI
+23% → +42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
319 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
6,683
Normalized
811
6,683
Prepared
811
321
Aligned
319
319
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
319
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
319 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-28%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
119 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
494
A: 492 / B: 2
Series A
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,683 raw → 321 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
22.7112
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-44434.7980
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-m1sl_monthly_5y