Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+6%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
316
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Industrial Production moves ~18 months before USD/VES Exchange Rate
Watch Industrial Production for an early read on USD/VES Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+6%
Based on values
95% CI
-5% → +17%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
316 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,288
6,606
Normalized
1,288
6,606
Prepared
1,288
317
Aligned
316
316
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
316
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+17%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Industrial Production today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
298 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+6%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+17%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0%
86 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
142 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
973
A: 972 / B: 1
Series A
Industrial Production
INDPRO
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
6555.0964
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-543215.7531
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-indpro_monthly_5y