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Correlation
of values
+9%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,376
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before USD/VES Exchange Rate
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on USD/VES Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+9%
Based on values
95% CI
+4% → +15%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,376 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,098
6,606
Normalized
3,098
6,606
Prepared
3,098
1,376
Aligned
1,376
1,376
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,376
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+17%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 12 weeks from now?"
1,364 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+9%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+17%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+23%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-7%
190 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,722
A: 1722 / B: 0
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,098 raw → 3,098 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 1,376 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1357
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
44621.3790
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-icsa_weekly_5y