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Correlation
of values
+12%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
316
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~7 months before Housing Starts
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on Housing Starts.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+12%
Based on values
95% CI
+1% → +22%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
316 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
6,606
Normalized
808
6,606
Prepared
808
317
Aligned
316
316
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
316
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-7 months
Correlation at this shift
+17%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 7 months later. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 7 months ago?"
309 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-7 months
+17%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-18%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
152 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
493
A: 492 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
137.4006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-85336.7147
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-houst_monthly_5y