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Correlation
of values
+22%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
104
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~17 months before Federal Debt
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on Federal Debt.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+22%
Based on values
95% CI
+3% → +39%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
104 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
6,606
Normalized
240
6,606
Prepared
240
317
Aligned
104
104
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
104
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
+41%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does Federal Debt today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 17 months ago?"
87 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
58 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
349
A: 136 / B: 213
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0099
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-88490.7017
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-gfdebtn_monthly_5y