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Correlation
of values
+5%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,376
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~12 weeks before US Gas Price
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on US Gas Price.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+5%
Based on values
95% CI
-0% → +10%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,376 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,860
6,606
Normalized
1,860
6,606
Prepared
1,860
1,376
Aligned
1,376
1,376
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,376
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+10%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does US Gas Price today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 12 weeks ago?"
1,364 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+5%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+10%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-32%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-1%
184 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
484
A: 484 / B: 0
Series A
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,860 raw → 1,860 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 1,376 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
31349.3132
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10940.1046
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-gasregw_weekly_5y