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Correlation
of values
+26%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
25
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Inflation, consumer prices moves ~12 months before USD/VES Exchange Rate
Watch Inflation, consumer prices for an early read on USD/VES Exchange Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on values
95% CI
-15% → +60%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
25 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
6,606
Normalized
65
6,606
Prepared
65
317
Aligned
25
25
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
25
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
-77%
+50% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does Inflation, consumer prices today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 12 months from now?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
-77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+84%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
332
A: 40 / B: 292
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
96.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
48193.5473
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-61951.5731
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_monthly_5y