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Correlation
of values
-18%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
316
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-18%
Based on values
95% CI
-28% → -7%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
316 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
862
6,606
Normalized
862
6,606
Prepared
862
317
Aligned
316
316
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
316
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-18%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
316 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-18%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-1%
167 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
547
A: 546 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-43808.5396
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
183408.4514
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y