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Correlation
of values
+12%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
5,074
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+12%
Based on values
95% CI
+9% → +15%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,074 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,107
6,606
Normalized
5,107
6,606
Prepared
5,107
6,606
Aligned
5,074
5,074
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,074
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+12%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,074 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+12%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
192 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,565
A: 33 / B: 1532
Series A
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 5,107 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 6,606 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
5460.7867
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-456711.7596
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_fred-dtwexbgs_daily_5y