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Correlation
of values
-73%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
232
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~54% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
GBP/USD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Real Personal Consumption
Watch GBP/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Real Personal Consumption.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → -67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
232 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
232
13,899
Normalized
232
13,899
Prepared
232
666
Aligned
232
232
Invalid removed
R²(i)
54.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
232
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-80%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
GBP/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with GBP/USD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
214 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-80%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
93 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
112 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
434
A: 0 / B: 434
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 232 raw → 232 prepared
Series B
GBP/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSUK
FRED · 13,899 raw → 666 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.6486
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dexusuk_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y