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Correlation
of values
-34%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
607
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Consumer Sentiment moves ~18 months before NZD/USD Exchange Rate
Watch Consumer Sentiment for an early read on NZD/USD Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on values
95% CI
-41% → -27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
607 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
13,869
Normalized
671
13,869
Prepared
671
665
Aligned
607
607
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
607
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-46%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Consumer Sentiment today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
561 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+71%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
122
A: 64 / B: 58
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
40
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0043
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0527
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusnz_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y