Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-28%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
603
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
NZD/USD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch NZD/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on values
95% CI
-35% → -20%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
603 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
603
13,869
Normalized
603
13,869
Prepared
603
665
Aligned
603
603
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
603
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-39%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Total Vehicle Sales today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
585 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-18%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
62
A: 0 / B: 62
Series A
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 603 raw → 603 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
61
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0183
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.9566
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusnz_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y