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Correlation
of values
+42%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
5,835
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+42%
Based on values
95% CI
+40% → +44%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,835 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,851
13,869
Normalized
5,851
13,869
Prepared
5,851
13,869
Aligned
5,835
5,835
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
17.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,835
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+42%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,835 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,050
A: 16 / B: 8034
Series A
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,851 raw → 5,851 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 13,869 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
201
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1017
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.4616
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusnz_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y