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Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
533
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~18 months before NZD/USD Exchange Rate
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on NZD/USD Exchange Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
-45% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
533 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
13,869
Normalized
533
13,869
Prepared
533
665
Aligned
533
533
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
533
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-55%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10-Year Real Interest Rate today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
515 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-70%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
132
A: 0 / B: 132
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0209
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.6872
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusnz_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y