SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-62%
of values
In sync
47%
of periods
History
1,809
weeks · through 2026-17
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~38% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-62%
Based on values
95% CI
-64% → -59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,809 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,810
13,854
Normalized
1,810
13,854
Prepared
1,810
2,884
Aligned
1,809
1,809
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
38.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,809
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-62%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,809 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-62%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
141 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,076
A: 1 / B: 1075
Series A
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 1,810 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,854 raw → 2,884 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
30
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0364
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8370
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dexusnz_fred-mortgage15us_5y