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Correlation
of values
+60%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,859
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on values
95% CI
+57% → +63%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,859 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,860
13,869
Normalized
1,860
13,869
Prepared
1,860
2,887
Aligned
1,859
1,859
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
35.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,859
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,859 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,029
A: 1 / B: 1028
Series A
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,860 raw → 1,860 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 2,887 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0643
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.4988
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusnz_fred-gasregw_weekly_5y