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Correlation
of values
+26%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
664
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
NZD/USD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch NZD/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on values
95% CI
+19% → +33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
664 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
862
13,869
Normalized
862
13,869
Prepared
862
665
Aligned
664
664
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
664
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+36%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
646 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+34%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
199
A: 198 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0148
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.6582
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusnz_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y