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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
327
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-44% → -25%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
327 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
6,864
Normalized
671
6,864
Prepared
671
329
Aligned
327
327
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
327
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
327 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+52%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
97 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
346
A: 344 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 329 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0037
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4856
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y