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Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
329
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
-47% → -28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
329 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
6,864
Normalized
533
6,864
Prepared
533
329
Aligned
329
329
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
329
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-38%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
329 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
99 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
204
A: 204 / B: 0
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 329 prepared
Sign agreement
92.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0645
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2632
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y