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Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
330
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
330 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
534
6,896
Normalized
534
6,896
Prepared
534
331
Aligned
330
330
Invalid removed
14%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
330
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-38%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
330 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-29%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
109 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
205
A: 204 / B: 1
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 534 raw → 534 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,896 raw → 331 prepared
Sign agreement
92.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0644
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2632
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y