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Correlation
of values
-51%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
329
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
EUR/USD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Building Permits
Watch EUR/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Building Permits.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
329 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
6,896
Normalized
797
6,896
Prepared
797
331
Aligned
329
329
Invalid removed
26%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
329
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-70%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
EUR/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with EUR/USD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
311 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-9%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
81 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
470
A: 468 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,896 raw → 331 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4300
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-permit_monthly_5y