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Correlation
of values
-21%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
328
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on values
95% CI
-31% → -10%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
328 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,048
6,864
Normalized
1,048
6,864
Prepared
1,048
329
Aligned
328
328
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
328
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
328 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
89 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
721
A: 720 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 329 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6587
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-payems_monthly_5y