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Correlation
of values
+20%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,428
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
EUR/USD Exchange Rate moves ~12 weeks before Chicago Financial Conditions
Watch EUR/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Chicago Financial Conditions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on values
95% CI
+15% → +25%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,428 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,889
6,864
Normalized
2,889
6,864
Prepared
2,889
1,428
Aligned
1,428
1,428
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,428
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+27%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
EUR/USD Exchange Rate shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Chicago Financial Conditions today line up with EUR/USD Exchange Rate 12 weeks ago?"
1,416 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,461
A: 1461 / B: 0
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,889 raw → 2,889 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 1,428 prepared
Sign agreement
9.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0611
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2036
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-nfci_weekly_5y