Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-23%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
327
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
M1 Money Supply moves ~18 months before EUR/USD Exchange Rate
Watch M1 Money Supply for an early read on EUR/USD Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-23%
Based on values
95% CI
-33% → -13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
327 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
6,864
Normalized
807
6,864
Prepared
807
329
Aligned
327
327
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
327
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-31%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
EUR/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does M1 Money Supply today line up with EUR/USD Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
309 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-37%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-32%
77 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
482
A: 480 / B: 2
Series A
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 329 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2111
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-m1sl_monthly_5y