Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
308
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Job Openings moves ~18 months before EUR/USD Exchange Rate
Watch Job Openings for an early read on EUR/USD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
308 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
308
6,941
Normalized
308
6,941
Prepared
308
333
Aligned
308
308
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
308
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-58%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
EUR/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Job Openings today line up with EUR/USD Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
290 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
96 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
25
A: 0 / B: 25
Series A
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 308 raw → 308 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,941 raw → 333 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.3424
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y