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Correlation
of values
-94%
In sync
of periods
14%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
5,112
These move in the same direction about 14% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~88% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
14%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-94%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,112 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
6,896
5,139
Normalized
6,896
5,139
Prepared
6,896
5,139
Aligned
5,112
5,112
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
88%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
5,112
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,112 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,811
A: 1784 / B: 27
Series A
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,896 raw → 6,896 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXAFEGS
FRED · 5,139 raw → 5,139 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-77.4147
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
196.6346
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-dtwexafegs_daily_5y