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Correlation
of values
-39%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
6,835
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on values
95% CI
-41% → -37%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
6,835 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,081
6,864
Normalized
16,081
6,864
Prepared
16,081
6,864
Aligned
6,835
6,835
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
15.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
6,835
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
6,835 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,275
A: 9246 / B: 29
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,081 raw → 16,081 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 6,864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
48
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0388
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2945
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_fred-dgs5_daily_5y