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Correlation
of values
-37%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,222
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on values
95% CI
-42% → -32%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,222 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,223
13,878
Normalized
1,223
13,878
Prepared
1,223
2,888
Aligned
1,222
1,222
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,222
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,222 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,667
A: 1 / B: 1666
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,223 raw → 1,223 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,878 raw → 2,888 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8524
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusal_fred-walcl_weekly_5y