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Correlation
of values
+36%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
667
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
AUD/USD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch AUD/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on values
95% CI
+30% → +43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
667 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
943
13,955
Normalized
943
13,955
Prepared
943
669
Aligned
667
667
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
667
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+45%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
AUD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with AUD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
639 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-33%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 276 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,955 raw → 669 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0463
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.5683
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexusal_fred-unrate_monthly_5y